Home Price Analysis for Indianapolis, IN

With home prices rising strongly in most parts of the country, there has been widespread media coverage on the possibility of a housing market bust. A thorough analysis of the Indianapolis metro market, as detailed below, reveals that there is very little danger of this. In fact, the local housing market is in excellent shape with a potential for significant housing equity gains, particularly for homebuyers who plan to remain in their house for the long run.

The local market has very favorable home price-to-income ratio and even better mortgage servicing cost-to-income ratio. The latter ratio is currently below the local historical average. It implies no financial overstretching to purchase a home in the region. Any respectable gains in the local job market will translate into substantial home price gains.

A higher usage of adjustable rate mortgage loans places a greater exposure risk to interest rate changes. But the risks are mitigated from recent job additions. In addition, a housing demand support is provided from positive net in-migration trends. The region has very affordable mortgage debt servicing conditions, suggesting potential for respectable future price gains.

Price Activity

The current price of $142,500 is 40% below the national average.

The median home price was essentially unchanged in 2004 and grew very modestly by only 7% in the past three years.

Home price is very affordable in light of improving job market conditions and from favorable in-migration trend into the region.

Local prices are one of the lowest among large metro markets.

Affordability

The ratio of price-to-income has been remarkably stable in the past 25 years. In fact, it shows a decline in more recent years. By this measure, there is no evidence of a price bubble.

Mortgage rates declining to 45-year lows have been a major force in boosting home prices in recent years. Lower rates allow homebuyers obtain a larger loan without necessarily increasing monthly mortgage payments.

A more relevant measure for assessing the risk of a home price bubble is the median mortgage servicing cost relative to the median income. This ratio is currently well below the local historical average. It implies no financial overstretching to purchase a home in the region and a huge potential for a significant price gains.

Local Fundamentals

The job market has been improving. There have been 27,000 payroll job additions in the past five years. Many new job holders seek their own housing units.

The region added in the past five years an estimated 80,000 new housing units of which about 66,000 were single-family units.

The ratio of five-year job gains to five-year new home construction shows the "hangover" impact of the housing shortage, or housing surplus. In our case, the local market is a bit oversupplied as the ratio is very close to zero. With recent job gains and the expected continued economic expansion, the jobs-to-new home ratio will likely increase.

Other Factors

Interest-only loans accounted for only 7% of all loans, while ARMS accounted for 26% in 2004 in the local region. Some homeowners will, as a result, feel the pinch of higher rates over time.

About one-third of the loans have loan-to-value ratios above 90%. This raises the foreclosure risk should the prices decline by more than 10%.

The baby boomers are in their peak earning years and have been active in purchasing second homes, which many consider as their future retirement homes. The baby boomer impact will continue for another 10 to 15 years.

With many top southern retirement destinations getting quickly unaffordable in the past five years, some retirees may turn to more affordable regions of the country. Perhaps, the local region might see a slight lift as a result.

Stress Test
Price declines in the local market are unlikely according to our stress test.

The local housing market will experience a price decline of 5% only under extreme unlikely scenarios of much higher mortgage rates. For example, mortgage rates rising to 23% in combination with 16,000 job losses could lead to a price decline.

The local market is more likely to appreciate at an above-normal rate because of the low business cost conditions and the on-going favorable in-migration trend.

Additional Discussion Points

Home price declines are very rare. In fact, the national median home price has not declined since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Stock market collapses, the OPEC oil crunch, economic recessions, and even wars have not negatively impacted national home prices since the 1930s.

There have been few times when local prices declined. In nearly all these cases, the price declines were accompanied by sharp prolonged job losses. It is difficult to foresee a price decline in a job creating economy.

Homes trade far less frequently than financial assets (about one home sale every 7 to 10 years for most homeowners). There are also larger transaction costs associated with selling a home due to the lengthy careful examination demanded by home buyers and sellers. Therefore, home prices are not prone to fluctuations as in the stock market. There are neither panic sells nor margin calls associated with homes.

Many non-quantifiable factors could be important for this metro market in determining home prices. Access to cultural life, the quality of museums, nearby local and national parks, water views, exclusive neighborhoods, weather, the international airport, city vibrancy, restaurants, and a host of other non-quantifiable factors could have an important influence on the overall pricing.

There are immense tax benefits to owning a home. These tax considerations were not considered in the analysis. For example, the 1998 law permitting primary owner occupants to trade down without having tax consequences. Also most home sales results in no capital gains tax. In addition, long-term capital gains tax rates were reduced in 2003, thereby providing higher return for home investors. These positive benefits, if accounted for in the analysis, would have shown an even stronger case for housing fundamentals in supporting home prices.

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